	(1)
VARIABLES	vbl
	
L1vbl	0.0953***
	(0.0179)
L2vbl	0.0486***
	(0.0166)
L3vbl	-0.355***
	(0.0163)
L4vbl	0.0451***
	(0.0170)
shock	-0.0383
	(0.0379)
L1shock	-0.131***
	(0.0380)
L2shock	-0.134***
	(0.0380)
Constant	0.0851***
	(0.00543)
	
Observations	3,142
Number of ifscode	90
R-squared	0.147
Standard errors in parentheses	
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1	
