	(1)
VARIABLES	vbl
	
L1vbl	0.0512***
	(0.0153)
L2vbl	0.0279*
	(0.0145)
L3vbl	-0.285***
	(0.0143)
L4vbl	0.0162
	(0.0143)
shock	-0.0399*
	(0.0205)
L1shock	-0.153***
	(0.0206)
L2shock	-0.00750
	(0.0204)
Constant	0.0828***
	(0.00478)
	
Observations	4,362
Number of ifscode	177
R-squared	0.099
Standard errors in parentheses	
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1	
