	(1)
VARIABLES	vbl
	
L1vbl	0.103***
	(0.0248)
L2vbl	-0.0734***
	(0.0230)
L3vbl	0.0204
	(0.0216)
L4vbl	-0.0197
	(0.0185)
shock	-0.0685***
	(0.0186)
L1shock	-0.200***
	(0.0187)
L2shock	-0.0525***
	(0.0189)
Constant	0.0324***
	(0.00281)
	
Observations	1,575
Number of ifscode	39
R-squared	0.102
Standard errors in parentheses	
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1	
