Forthcoming Papers

Heterogeneity in Manufacturing Growth Risk

DAAN OPSCHOOR,  DICK VAN DIJK,  PHILIP HANS FRANSES


Inflationary Household Uncertainty Shocks

GENE AMBROCIO


Does the Phillips Curve Lie Down as We Age?

CHADWICK CURTIS,  JULIO GARÍN,  ROBERT LESTER


Outsourcing Bank Loan Screening: The Economics of Third-Party Loan Guarantees

CHENYU SHAN,  DRAGON YONGJUN TANG,  WENYA WANG


The Macro-Economic Effects of a European Deposit (Re-)Insurance Scheme

MARIUS CLEMENS,  STEFAN GEBAUER,  TOBIAS KÖNIG


News-Driven Household Macroeconomic Expectations: Regional vs. National Telecast Information

JUSTINE GUILLOCHON


Regulatory Capital Management to Exceed Thresholds

LUCIANA OROZCO,  SILVINA RUBIO


Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union

PEI KUANG,  KAUSHIK MITRA


Does a Financial Crisis Impair Corporate Innovation?

MASAMI IMAI,  MICHIRU SAWADA


Asset Exemption in Bankruptcy, Access to and Cost of Credit

PASQUALINA ARCA,  GIANFRANCO ATZENI,  LUCA G. DEIDDA


A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models

YOUNGSOO JANG,  SOYOUNG LEE


Bank Opacity and Safe Asset Moneyness


The Impact of Regulatory Stress Tests on Banks' Portfolio Similarity and Implications for Systemic Risk

FALK BRÄUNING,  JOSÉ L. FILLAT


Optimal Notional Defined Contributions

CARLOS E. DA COSTA,  MARCELO R. SANTOS


Stress Tests, Information Disclosure, and Credit Line Runs

JOSE E. GUTIERREZ,  LUIS FERNÁNDEZ LAFUERZA


Cheap U.S. Dollar Credit: Panacea or Poison? Firm-Level Evidence from Emerging Markets

XIAO WANG,  STEVE PAK YEUNG WU,  HAICHUN YE


Are Risky Banks Disciplined by Large Corporate Depositors?

BJÖRN IMBIEROWICZ,  ANTHONY SAUNDERS,  SASCHA STEFFEN


On Adjusting the One-Sided Hodrick–Prescott Filter

ELIAS WOLF,  FRIEDER MOKINSKI,  YVES SCHÜLER


Dampening the Financial Accelerator? Direct Lenders and Monetary Policy

RYAN BANERJEE,  JOSE-MARIA SERENA


Pollution Permits and Financing Costs

FABIO ANTONIOU,  MANTHOS D. DELIS,  STEVEN ONGENA,  CHRIS TSOUMAS


Hampered Monetary Policy Transmission - A Supply-Side Story?

LOTTA HECKMANN-DRAISBACH,  JULIA HARDT


A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation

HIE JOO AHN,  HAN CHEN,  MICHAEL KISTER


Quantitative Easing and Direct Lending in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis

FILIPPO OCCHINO


Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality

SANGYUP CHOI,  JEEYEON PHI


Fiscal Policy, International Spillovers, and Endogenous Productivity

MATHIAS KLEIN,  LUDGER LINNEMANN


Costs of Adjustment, Portfolio Separation, and the Dynamic Behavior of Bank Loans and Deposits – Revised

Michael Sigmund,  Johannes Wächtler


A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation

HIE JOO AHN,  HAN CHEN,  MICHAEL KISTER


Inflation Expectation Uncertainty in a New Keynesian Framework

ANGELA FUEST,  TORSTEN SCHMIDT


Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade-Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU

Silviano Esteve-Pérez,  Salvador Gil-Pareja,  Rafael Llorca-Vivero,  Jordi Paniagua


Familiarity Breeds Contagion

SUMIT AGARWAL,  ADITYA MURLIDHARAN,  NAMAN NISHESH,  PRASANNA TANTRI


Central Bank Independence at Low Interest Rates

BENJAMÍN GARCÍA,  ARSENIOS SKAPERDAS


Tariffs and Foreign Direct Investment in a Dynamic North–South Model

TATSURO IWAISAKO,  HITOSHI TANAKA


Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

JONATHAN FEDERLE,  ANDRÉ MEIER,  GERNOT J. MÜLLER,  VICTOR SEHN


Investor Sentiment, Managerial Manipulation, and Stock Returns

JIAJUN JIANG,  QI LIU,  BO SUN


Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery

CHARLES M. KAHN,  MAARTEN R.C. VAN OORDT,  YU ZHU


Generalizing Determinacy under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switches: The Case of the Zero Lower Bound

SEONGHOON CHO,  ANTONIO MORENO


Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History

LUIS I. JÁCOME,  SAMUEL PIENKNAGURA


Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization

DANNY MCGOWAN,  HUYEN NGUYEN,  KLAUS SCHAECK


How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities

CHI-YOUNG CHOI,  SOOJIN JO


Monetary Policy and Government Debt

NICOLAS CARAMP,  ETHAN FEILICH


Decomposing Supply- and Demand-Driven Inflation

ADAM HALE SHAPIRO


Does Regulation Only Bite the Less Profitable? Evidence from the Too-Big-To-Fail Reforms

TIRUPAM GOEL,  ULF LEWRICK,  AAKRITI MATHUR


(In)Stability of the Relationship between Relative Expenditure and Price of Durable and Nondurable Goods

VIPUL BHATT,  N. KUNDAN KISHOR


Nonconforming Preferences: Jumbo Mortgage Lending and Large Bank Stress Tests

ANDREW HAUGHWOUT,  DONALD MORGAN,  MICHAEL NEUBAUER,  MAXIM PINKOVSKIY,  WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW


Market Regulation, Cycles, and Growth Dynamics in a Monetary Union

MIRKO ABBRITTI,  SEBASTIAN WEBER


Exchange Rates and Prices in the Netherlands and Britain over the Past Four Centuries

JAMES R. LOTHIAN,  JOHN DEVEREUX


Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information

CHENGCHENG JIA


Estimating the Ideas' Production Function Using Macro-Economic Persistence

XIAOHAN MA,  ROBERTO SAMANIEGO


Financial Liberalization, Credit Market Dynamism, and Allocative Efficiency

ANA MARÍA HERRERA,  RAOUL MINETTI,  MATTHEW SCHAFFER


Optimal Monetary and Transfer Policy in a Liquidity Trap

STEFANO MARIA CORBELLINI


A Divisia Measure of the Money Supply for Mexico

LUIS FERNANDO COLUNGA-RAMOS,  VICTOR J. VALCARCEL


Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

JOHANNES POESCHL,  JAKOB G. MIKKELSEN


Precision of Public Information Disclosures, Banks' Stability, and Welfare

DIEGO MORENO,  TUOMAS TAKALO


Does Dividend Policy Lead the Economy?


What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs

CHRISTOPH GÖRTZ,  CHRISTOPHER GUNN,  THOMAS A. LUBIK


Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Firms

EZGI KURT


Market-Triggered Contingent Capital with Incomplete Information

TOBIAS BERG,  EVA SCHLIEPHAKE


Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

RASHAD AHMED,  MENZIE D. CHINN


Aggregate Risk and Lending Decisions in the Interbank Market

ANUAR BECHARA,  ALEJANDRO BERNALES,  CARLOS CAÑÓN,  NICOLÁS GARRIDO


Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence, Income Expectations, and Consumer Indebtedness

ANTONIA GROHMANN,  LUKAS MENKHOFF,  CHRISTOPH MERKLE,  RENKE SCHMACKER


Monetary Policy and Welfare with Heterogeneous Firms and Endogenous Entry

DUDLEY COOKE,  TATIANA DAMJANOVIC


Political Uncertainty and the Geographic Allocation of Credit: Evidence from Small Businesses

GERALDO CERQUEIRO,  ANA MÃO-DE-FERRO,  MARÍA FABIANA PENAS


The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty

JUAN M. LONDONO,  SAI MA,  BETH ANNE WILSON


The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

ETHAN M.L. McCLURE,  VITALIIA YAREMKO,  OLIVIER COIBION,  YURIY GORODNICHENKO


Fiscal Policy, Government Ideology, and Economic Activity: Evidence from OECD Countries

RAPHAELLE G. COULOMBE


On the Welfare Costs of Perceptions Biases


The Effects of Fiscal Measures during COVID-19

PRAGYAN DEB,  DAVIDE FURCERI,  JONATHAN D. OSTRY,  NOUR TAWK,  NAIHAN YANG


The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates in 1953 and 1969: Friedman versus Johnson

George S. Tavlas


Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks

ALESSANDRO FLAMINI,  IFTEKHAR HASAN


Proximity to Bank Headquarters and Branch Efficiency: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

IVAN LIM,  DUC DUY NGUYEN,  LINH NGUYEN,  JOHN O.S. WILSON


Oil Strikes Back: Trend Factors and Exchange Rates

LIYAN HAN,  YANG XU,  QUNZI ZHANG,  XIAONENG ZHU


Determinants of the Credit Cycle: A Flow Analysis of the Extensive Margin

VINCENZO CUCINIELLO,  NICOLA DI IASIO


The Interaction between Credit Constraints and Uncertainty Shocks

PRATITI CHATTERJEE,  DAVID GUNAWAN,  ROBERT KOHN


Household Income, Portfolio Choice, and Heterogeneous Consumption Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks

FUMITAKA NAKAMURA


Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention

OLIVER PFÄUTI


Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in Emerging Economies: Evidence from India

AEIMIT LAKDAWALA,  RAJESWARI SENGUPTA


Intensive and Extensive Margins of Labor Supply in HANK: Aggregate and Disaggregate Implications


Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Equilibrium Determinacy

JAE WON LEE,  WOONG YONG PARK


Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Data Set of Official Data and Estimates

GUSTAVO ADLER,  KYUN SUK CHANG,  RUI C. MANO,  YUTING SHAO


The Effects of Regulatory Office Closures on Bank Behavior

IVAN LIM,  JENS HAGENDORFF,  SETH ARMITAGE


Digging Deeper—Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database

ZOHAIR ALAM,  ADRIAN ALTER,  JESSE EISEMAN,  GASTON GELOS,  HEEDON KANG,  MACHIKO NARITA,  ERLEND NIER,  NAIXI WANG


A Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis When Households are Less Constrained

EMMA AISBETT,  MARKUS BRUECKNER,  RALF STEINHAUSER,  RHETT WILCOX


Financial Development and Innovation: The Role of Market Structure

XIAOYANG ZHU,  JAEBEOM KIM


Flight to Safety or Liquidity? Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis

FENG DONG,  YI WEN


Reservation Rates in Interbank Money Markets

EDOARDO RAINONE


Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations

JULIEN PINTER,  EVŽEN KOČENDA


Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS,  KASUN D. PATHIRAGE


How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers

KATYA KARTASHOVA,  XIAOQING ZHOU


Is Macroprudential Policy Instrument Blunt? Empirical Analysis Based on Japan's Experience from the 1970s to the 1990s

KATSURAKO SONODA,  NAO SUDO


A New Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest